Use of wastewater metrics to track COVID-19 in the U.S.: a national time-series analysis over the first three quarters of 2022 (preprint)

Background: Widespread use of at-home COVID-19 tests hampers determination of community COVID-19 incidence. Using nationwide data available through the US National Wastewater Surveillance System, we examined the performance of two wastewater metrics in predicting high case and hospitalizations rates both before and after widespread use of at-home tests. Methods: We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (AUC) for two wastewater metrics- viral concentration relative to the peak of January 2022 ('wastewater percentile') and 15-day percent change in SARS-CoV-2 ('percent change'). Dichotomized reported cases (equal to or greater than 200 or <200 cases per 100,000) and new hospitalizations (equal to or greater than 10 or <10 per 100,000) were our dependent variables, stratified by calendar quarter. Using logistic regression, we assessed the performance of combining wastewater metrics. Results: Among 268 counties across 22 states, wastewater percentile detected high reported case and hospitalizations rates in the first quarter of 2022 (AUC 0.95 and 0.86 respectively) whereas the percent change did not (AUC 0.54 and 0.49 respectively). A wastewater percentile of 51% maximized sensitivity (0.93) and specificity (0.82) for detecting high case rates. A model inclusive of both metrics performed no better than using wastewater percentile alone. The predictive capability of wastewater percentile declined over time (AUC 0.84 and 0.72 for cases for second and third quarters of 2022). Conclusion: Nationwide, county wastewater levels above 51% relative to the historic peak predicted high COVID rates and hospitalization in the first quarter of 2022, but performed less well in subsequent quarters. Decline over time in predictive performance of this metric likely reflects underreporting of cases, reduced testing, and possibly lower virulence of infection due to vaccines and treatments.

COVID19 vaccine type and humoral immune response in patients receiving dialysis (preprint)

BackgroundPatients on dialysis vaccinated with the attenuated adenovirus SARS-CoV-2 vaccine might mount an impaired response to vaccination. MethodsWe evaluated the humoral vaccination response among 2,099 fully vaccinated patients receiving dialysis. We used commercially available assays (Siemens) to assess prevalence of no response or diminished response to COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type. We defined "no seroconversion" as lack of change from negative to positive in total RBD Ig antibody, no detectable response on semiquantitative RBD IgG antibody (index value <1) as "no RBD IgG response", and a semiquantitative RBD IgG index value <10 as "diminished RBD IgG response" ResultsOf the 2,099 fully vaccinated patients on dialysis, the proportion receiving the mRNA1273, BNT162b2, and Ad26.COV2.S were 62% (n=1316), 20% (n=416) and 18% (n=367), respectively. A third (33.3%) of patients receiving the attenuated adenovirus Ad26.COV2.S vaccine failed to seroconvert and an additional 36% had no detectable or diminished IgG response even 28-60 days post vaccination. ConclusionOne in three fully vaccinated patients receiving dialysis had evidence of an impaired immune response to the attenuated adenovirus Ad26.COV2.S vaccine.

Antibody Response to COVID-19 vaccination in Patients Receiving Dialysis (preprint)

Background Patients receiving dialysis may mount impaired responses to COVID19 vaccination. Methods We report antibody response to vaccination from 1140 patients without, and 493 patients with pre-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibody. We used commercially available assays (Siemens) to test remainder plasma monthly in association with vaccination date and type, and assess prevalence of absent total receptor binding antibody, and absent or attenuated (index value < 10) semiquantitative receptor binding domain IgG index values. We used Poisson regression to evaluate risk factors for absent or attenuated response to vaccination. Results Among patients who were seronegative versus seropositive before vaccination, 62% and 56% were ≥65 years old, 20% and 24% were Hispanic, and 22% and 23% were Black. Median IgG index values rose steadily over time, and were higher among the seropositive than in the seronegative patients after completing vaccination (150 [25 th , 75 th percentile 23.2, 150.0] versus 41.6 [11.3, 150.0]). Among 610 patients who completed vaccination (assessed ≥14 days later, median 29 days later), the prevalence of absent total RBD response, and absent and attenuated semiquantitative IgG response was 4.4% (95% CI 3.1, 6.4%), 3.4% (2.4, 5.2%), and 14.3% (11.7, 17.3%) respectively. Risk factors for absent or attenuated response included longer vintage of end-stage kidney disease, and lower pre-vaccination serum albumin. Conclusions More than one in five patients receiving dialysis had evidence of an attenuated immune response to COVID19 vaccination. Significance statement Patients receiving dialysis face high likelihood of severe COVID19; at the same time, vaccination may be less efficacious, as prior data indicate impaired immune responses to influenza and Hepatitis B vaccination. We found that 22% of patients receiving dialysis had suboptimal responses to vaccination, irrespective of whether or not they had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Poorer health status and longer duration of end-stage kidney disease increased likelihood of suboptimal response. Ongoing vigilance for COVID19 in dialysis facilities and studies of modified vaccination dosing schedules will be critical to protecting patients receiving dialysis.

SARS-COV-2 antibody prevalence in patients on dialysis in the US in January 2021 (preprint)

Background: To estimate seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the US, the country with largest absolute numbers of COVID19 cases and deaths in the world, we conducted a cross-sectional assessment from a sample of patients receiving dialysis in January 2021. Methods: We tested remainder plasma of 21,424 patients receiving dialysis through the third-largest US dialysis organization, with facilities located nationwide. We used the Siemens spike protein receptor binding domain total antibody assay to estimate crude SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, and then estimated seroprevalence for the US dialysis and adult population by standardizing by age, sex and region. We also compared January 2021 seroprevalence and case-detection rates to that from a similar subsample of patients receiving dialysis who had been tested in July 2020. Results: Patients in the sample were disproportionately from older age and minority race/ethnic groups. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 18.9% (95% CI: 18.3-19.5%) in the sample, 18.7% (18.1-19.2%) standardized to the US dialysis population, and 21.3% (20.3-22.3%) standardized to the US adult population (range 15.3-20.8% in the Northeast and South respectively). Younger age groups (18-44 years), and persons self-identifying as Hispanic or living in Hispanic neighborhoods, and persons living in the poorest neighborhoods were among the subgroups with the highest seroprevalence (25.9% (24.1-27.8%), 25.1% (23.6-26.4%), 24.8% (23.2-26.5%) respectively). Compared to data from July 2020, we observed diminished variability in seroprevalence by geographic region and urban-rural status. Estimated case detection rate increased from 14% to 23% in July 2020 to January 2021. Conclusions: A year after the first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected in the US, fewer than one in four adults have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Vaccine roll out to majority minority neighborhoods and poorer neighborhoods will be critical to disrupting the spread of infection.